Is knowledge of the Grand National part of the curriculum for those seeking British citizenship? Well, if not, it should be. It’s a national institution. On Saturday, April 5th 2008 at Aintree racecourse 40 horses will gallop and jump their way round four and a half miles with the nation watching excitedly. A large percentage of the population, which has just one bet of the year, will have it on the Grand National. Whether it’s Auntie Edna and her lucky pin, or the neighbour relying on a nice name or regular form students, each will clutch their betting slips for just over 15 spectacular and nail-biting minutes.
Come Saturday evening there will be a few, probably frustratingly including Auntie Edna, up and down the country celebrating their winnings. But for every know-all who says you don’t need to know anything about racing to pick the winner, there will be dozens tearing up losing betting slips, as the big bookmakers announce further record profits. Well, while not begrudging the bookies a share, we’d like to get our hands on some of that mug-punters’ money. This piece is aimed at maximising our chances of doing just that.
With 40 runners hurtling across the Melling Road towards the first fence, what are our chances? We need to whittle down the number to a handful of jumpers with a realistic chance, and we can do that with the aid of statistics. Statistics in the wrong hands can be lethal; the abuse of statistics is almost a national pastime. So what factors should we be looking at and why are they significant?
Firstly, let’s consider age. As those of us with experience of growing older can testify, you can’t do all the things you did in your youth. It’s the same with horses, and especially with such a tough test as the National, age takes its toll. OK, there are 40-year-old professional goalkeepers around, and we may know an 80-year-old who’s still capable of a mean round of golf, but these are the exceptions. In the last 16 years only 3 horses over the age of 10 have won. So stick with those under 11, who have not yet started drawing their horsey pensions.
The next factor to consider is weight, which has been the subject of much comment and where there appears to be a significant trend. Simply put, few horses win carrying more than 11st, and it takes an exceptional horse to win lumping more than 11st 7lb on its back (only the legendary Red Rum, twice, has done so since 1972). That seems to suggest we should concentrate on the bottom half of the handicap at those set to carry less than 11st.
But this is where statistics need handling carefully. Aintree has made great efforts to raise the class of runners in the National. Such has been the success of this policy that the race has attracted a large number of high-class animals. So many have accepted to run that the lowest weight this year may only be as low as 10st 8lb or even 10st 9lb; a great difference to when a large percentage of the field would carry 10st with some even running from outside the handicap. So the range between top and bottom weights will be compressed more than is usual. It remains to be seen whether this is a new and lasting trend, and it’s too early to say what effect this will have.
The ability to last out the full distance of the race is also vital. The possibility of changing fortunes on that long run-in past the elbow is part of the drama. The spectacle is enhanced because this is one of the few races on the calendar run over 4 miles. There used to be a fashionable theory that you only needed a class two and a half mile chaser because the field hacks around on the first circuit before racing in earnest over the final 2 miles. Observation suggests that doesn’t happen that often. There have been a number of brave front-running performances in recent years and so it’s safer to rely on a horse that has winning form over 3 miles.
Until recently the National course was only used 3 times a year, so having experience of the fences was difficult to come by. This has changed as Aintree has gained more fixtures, and in recent Nationals a number of winners and placed horses had form over the National course, so that might be an important factor. As should the ability to jump. The fences have been adapted in recent years, so they are less daunting, and there are examples of horses that have experienced a fall in a previous race yet proved they can handle the stiff Aintree fences.
The gruelling nature of the race demands that a contender should be fit and fresh to face the challenge. A horse shouldn’t have had too many races, so it’s best to look for a horse that has had no more than 6 outings in that season. Furthermore, a maximum of 2 races since the start of year is a pattern observable in many of the winners, one of which the horse should have had in the past 7 weeks. On the whole, runners who had appeared at the Cheltenham Festival in mid-March do not have a good record.
Finally, the success of the Irish in recent years has also highlighted another trend, and this is to have had a preparatory run over hurdles. It’s much more common in Ireland to campaign a horse over hurdles and fences in the same season, whereas British trainers rarely return their charges to hurdles once they have started a chasing career.
So there it is, a general outline of the factors which have been useful in pinpointing the winner of the Grand National in recent years, and by applying them you might just come out better than Auntie Edna!