Grand National 2009

This years renewal promises to be more competitive than previous years with all forty runners running within the handicap. The ground is described as on the easy side of good increasing the chances of the number of finishers.

Paul Nicholls runs four horses; Cornish Set, Eurotrek, Big Fella Thanks and favourite, My Will. Although Nicholls boasts profound success as a trainer this success is yet to spill over to this particular race, despite this, Ruby Walsh decided to take the ride on My Will after he ran a creditable fifth in this years Gold Cup. This horse could be described as the ‘nearly horse’ having run admirably in many big races yet rarely landing one. His best form to date is his fine second to Exotic Dancer in last years Bet Fair Bowl at this same meeting but since then he has appeared up to his depth in some very hot races. However he does have a nice racing weight to carry and with a clear round over these larger obsatcleshe should go close.

Big Fella Thanks did well to land the Sky Bet chase at Doncaster back in January and was not disgraced when third to Nacarat in the Racing Post Chase thereafter. That said, his jumping neglects fluency and he can take the odd chance at an obstacle and I believe he will do well just to complete.

Cornish Set landed the Badger Beer Chase at Wincanton in November before finishing second in the Welsh National but this will be his stiffest task to date and he looks to be up against it. In contrast, Eurotrec looks more interesting; not seen since pulling up in this race two years ago he looks the each way value in the race. Paul Nicholls has purposely not run the horse this season as his best race is always his first. He is only lightly raced and is prone to injury but he won the Becher Chase in 2006 when fresh so has winning experience over these fences. With a clear round he has a great chance of staking his presence in the first four.

Tony McCoy flipped the coin between riding Butlers Cabin or L’ami and decided on riding the first named. A faller at Bechers second time round in last years race when seemingly going well, Butlers Cabin comes into the race having run well enough to finish fifth of twenty four in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival. His price fell as soon as the Champion jockey decided to ride him and for that reason he now looks no value and for a horse that has not won for two years others are preferred.

L’ami took a crashing fall at Bechers in last year renewal and in the process ended Mick Fitzgelalds career. That said he does come into the race off the back of three decent runs, two of which were over Cheltenhams cross country course. Despite last years fall his jumping is generally good earning him his place on this years short list.
State of Play had a season to forget last year. The 2006 Henessey Gold Cup winner has only been lightly raced this campaign as he is definitely best when fresh. He won the Charlie Hall at Wetherby on his seasonal reappearance but was then disappointing at the same venue on Boxing Day. He has been kept fresh since so he therefore enters calculations, however although he has never fallen in any of his races to date, his lack of size and scope raise question marks and for that reason others are preferred.

Last years winner Comply Or Die is yet to sparkle this season and although David Pipe trained the big winner on Thursday it would be a surprise to see him come back to form to win this race once again.

Many punters have praised the chances of Rambling Minister after his back to back wins at Cheltenham and Haydock. The one big worry for him would be the ground, as all his best form has been on soft or heavy and that will certainly not be the case come Saturday.
Of the Irish raiders Black Apalachi looks the pick after some solid performances during the winter months. He has experience over these fences when winning the Becher Chase in November and was back in the winners enclosure at Fairyhouse last time out. But in keeping with Rambling Minister, his best form is also on a soft surface, so any rainfall on Saturday will be grateful to enhance his chances.

This has to be on paper one of the most competitive renewals of the world greatest steeple chase with more than a handful of horses in with a serious chance, however, the one horse that has more ticks in his boxes than most is Kilbeggen Blade. The winner of three races this winter including one over hurdles this horse has odds stacked in his favour. His trainer is in fine form already posting a win at this meeting on Thursday. The horse loves good ground, jumps well and continues to look to improve. He has an enviable racing weight and jockey Graham Lee has winning experience in this race. With a clear round and luck in running Kilbeggan Blade has a serious chance of landing the spoils in Saturdays big race.